The Canadian dollar was traded laterally in an uneventful overnight session.
It managed to outperform AUD / UAD and NZD / USD, thanks to rising crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the North American benchmark, extended this week’s earnings and rose to $ 53.70 / b. Oil prices continue to be sustained by the Saudi Arabia production cut of one million barrels / day that begins on February 1 and the reduction of US oil stocks. The American Petroleum Institute reported that oil stocks fell 5.8 million barrels in the week ending January 8.
Canadian dollar traders do not seem concerned about the latest developments in coronavirus in Canada. Ontario announced another State of Emergency, in effect on Thursday, which severely restricts commercial activities and requires citizens to stay at home and leave only when necessary. Blocking measures are also in place in other regions.
Foreign exchange traders are not concerned. Maybe they should be. Canada will not have vaccinated its population until September, at the very least.
Meanwhile, other major G-10 companies are aggressively implementing vaccination programs, which means that Canada will be at a disadvantage and economic growth may lag behind its competitors.
US Federal Reserve officials are resisting the market’s discourse of an early start to reduce purchases of Quantitative Easing. Kansas City Fed President Ester George said the Fed needs to meet its inflation and employment targets before adjusting QE policy. His comments were echoed by other officials and helped to halt the Treasury’s latest recovery.
US presidential political dysfunction is just a distraction for foreign exchange traders. They are most interested in Joe Biden’s multi-trillion dollar stimulus plans, which are due to be detailed on Thursday. The main parts of the plan have already been leaked, which risks a “buy-the-rumor-and-sell-the-news” reaction.
EUR / USD traded in a range of $ 1.2208- $ 1.2220 in Asia, then dropped to $ 1.2163 in Europe after European Central Bank employee François Villeroy reminded traders that the bank central bank is monitoring the increase in EUR / USD. President Christine Lagarde said that “December’s economic projections are clearly plausible and the assumptions underlying the predictions are still correct.
“The forecasts are based on the assumption that blocking measures will be imposed by the end of the first quarter.”
GBP / USD extended yesterday’s gains, rising from $ 1.3663 to $ 1.3700. The gains were the result of comments by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, suggesting that UK rates would not be negative.
The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise to 0.4% m / m in December, from 0.2% in November, due to higher energy prices.